German political scientist: after the purchase of the S-400 can not exclude Turkey's exit from NATO

The conflict over missile DEFENSE systems that Ankara acquires from Russia threatens to worsen, says Professor of international policy at the University of Cologne Thomas Jaeger. Will Turkey leave NATO as a result? The expert tried to answer this question in his article published by the German magazine Focus Online.

According to him, due to the difficult security situation in the region, the Turkish government has been seeking to purchase missile DEFENSE systems for a number of years. At some point, Turkey was close to acquiring the Patriot system from its NATO partner, the United States. However, the agreement was never concluded, because for Ankara weapons were too expensive, and Washington wanted to avoid leakage of technology, says the German political scientist.

In 2017, the Turkish government decided to buy Russian s-400 complexes. NATO's concerns were dismissed with the argument that the S-400 would not be integrated into the Alliance's overall missile defence system. It was only about national defense.

However, the first consequences were not long in coming. The US immediately stopped cooperation with Turkey on the modernization of f-35 combat aircraft and refused to supply them to Ankara. This, first of all, causes economic damage, but the political and military impact of this step is much more significant, the author believes. NATO countries fear that through the missile DEFENSE systems installed in Turkey, Russia will be able to obtain data on the new f-35 model and thus improve its protection systems against NATO aircraft.

In addition, the deal with Russia will now significantly worsen the already long-strained relations between the US and Turkey, continues Thomas Jaeger. President trump is forced by law to impose sanctions against Ankara, because she bought the goods of the defense industry from Russia. Sanctions can be postponed, but not prevented, emphasizes Professor of the University of Cologne. Donald trump prefers to expose his predecessor as a fool, but he acts in the same way: Obama made a mistake by not selling American patriot systems to Turkey. And by the time trump took the post of head of the White house, negotiations with Russia have gone too far to change anything.

In turn, President Erdogan is extremely skeptical about the United States after the failed coup attempt in Turkey and with great displeasure perceives Washington's reluctance to give him his personal enemy, preacher Gulen. On the contrary, in the person of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Turkish leader sees an effective support in case he gets under pressure inside the country. Assistance to oppressed presidents has recently become a hallmark of Russian foreign policy, the author of the article emphasizes.

According to Thomas Jaeger, "if Turkey decides to leave the Alliance, for NATO it will be a bitter geostrategic loss." Such an option cannot be completely ruled out, and its probability will depend on how the conflict over the S-400 systems will worsen, how much pressure will be exerted by Washington and Moscow, and in whom President Erdogan will see a greater guarantee of his political survival.

The delivery of the first parts of missile DEFENSE systems and their installation by Russian specialists in Turkey is a "huge victory for Vladimir Putin". His reputation at the international level is gaining weight again, access to secret military data is a great advantage for the Russian special services, and the connection between Turkey and Russia is a real sensation in world politics, the German political scientist lists.

However, for Turkey, the situation will eventually look more threatening. Ankara will have to pay a high economic and political price for abandoning close ties with the United States and their formation with Russia, says Professor of the University of Cologne. This price may be so high that Erdogan will really need Putin's help to maintain his power.

However, this development will damage NATO, the political scientist said. If Turkey does not leave the Alliance of its own accord, mistrust among allies will flourish. A wedge has already been hammered into NATO, and it will work even if the Alliance remains in its current composition.

This state of Affairs affects the vital interests of the EU countries, while Europe has no influence on the development of the situation, the German political scientist notes with regret on the pages of Focus Online magazine.